Hello everyone!

Welcome to the twelfth edition of my newsletter! Every Saturday I’ll be sending out a quick newsletter on how to master crypto. I write about mindset, trends and analysis.

Today, I focus on the boss: Bitcoin.

Bitcoin = ½ crypto

Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency ever developed and, for many, the epitome of crypto. That is approximately half true, because Bitcoin's market cap is usually about the half of the entire crypto market cap.

Due to the enormous market cap, it is naturally no longer possible to expect huge gains like 100x with small altcoins. However, if one times the market cycles well, gains of 3-8x are achievable without problems.

And long-term, over several market cycles, there will likely be much more potential! 

In recent years, there has been a notable increase in institutional adoption of Bitcoin. Large companies, hedge funds, and even some governments have started to invest in Bitcoin and integrate it into their investment portfolios.

This week, the latest estimate from Cathie Wood / ARKK Invest was released. A target price for 2030 between $258k and $1.48M. See for yourself:

In the long run, one can only be bullish about Bitcoin and crypto overall. The technology is a revolutionary advancement, and Bitcoin is becoming the best hedge against inflation for more and more people.

Additionally, larger investors and institutions are showing interest. Especially in recent weeks, several Bitcoin spot ETFs have been proposed, which will significantly boost demand once the SEC approves these applications.

Before we address the critical question of when to buy, here are some interesting facts.

Interesting facts

1. Bitcoin was created in 2009 by an unknown person or group using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. The true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto remains a mystery.

2. The message embedded in the Bitcoin blockchain's genesis block, which is the first-ever block mined, reads: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.“ It is widely believed to be a reference to a newspaper headline published on that day, highlighting the motivation behind Bitcoin's creation. The text is a headline article in the London Times about the British government's failure to stimulate the economy post-2007-08.

3. The first real-world transaction using Bitcoin occurred on May 22, 2010. A programmer named Laszlo Hanyecz bought two pizzas for 10,000 bitcoins. This transaction is now famously known as "Bitcoin Pizza Day.“

4. Bitcoin is divisible up to eight decimal places. The smallest unit of Bitcoin is called a "satoshi," named after its creator, and is equivalent to 0.00000001 BTC.

5. Bitcoin’s Lightning Network is a layer-2 scaling solution that aims to improve transaction speed and reduce fees. It enables faster, cheaper, and more scalable transactions by leveraging off-chain payment channels.

6. It is estimated that around 20% of all bitcoins in existence are lost or inaccessible. This happens when people lose access to their private keys or accidentally send bitcoins to addresses with no known private key.

7. The Bitcoin price often correlates with tech stocks (NASDAQ) since it is somewhat like a tech stock itself. Additionally, it correlates negatively with the dollar index. A strong dollar is bad for Bitcoin, and vice versa. For short-term price action, it's essential to keep an eye on that.

Bitcoin market cycle

So when should we buy Bitcoin?

In general, it's a good idea to buy during the late bear market and especially during the accumulation phase.

During the accumulation phase or at the beginning of a bull market, you might buy at a slightly higher price, but you can be more confident that you're not catching a falling knife. Just because Bitcoin has lost 50% and may seem cheap now doesn't mean it can't lose another 50% from that point…

As mentioned several times before, I think that we have left the bear market behind and are currently in an accumulation phase, roughly between 20k and 40k until 2024.

Whether we will see 20k again is uncertain at the moment, but it is possible. It is also entirely possible that we reach 40k during this summer rally (also considering the stock market!).

And perhaps we are already at the beginning of a new bull market, and prices might continue to rise.

Honestly, no one can say for certain.

Think long-term

But if you think long-term, it is not of much significance. What is clear to me is that within the next 2.5 years, Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high, and altcoins will experience a parabolic surge.

Therefore, I consider this strategy to be the most sensible at the moment: buy during every major dip. And by the way, until Bitcoin starts to rise parabolically, it will outperform most altcoins. More on the altseason cycle in the next editions. This article is just the first part of a series of deep dives into important coins that I believe will play a central role in the upcoming bull run.

Buying BTC and ETH during every major dip is a very profitable and the safest option. However, looking and buying into mid- and small-cap coins already is riskier but potentially more profitable with luck.

So, if you're starting your portfolio from scratch, start with Bitcoin. And I can already reveal that Ethereum is also included. That's what we'll be talking about next week!

Twitter reads

20% of all bitcoins are lost. So don't lose your bitcoins - always keep them safely stored in a cold wallet! With my best regards and wishes, I hope you have a wonderful weekend!

Marco

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