The Summit Post #40

Hello everyone!

Welcome to edition #40 of The Summit Post, my free newsletter focusing on crypto market updates and investments.

Today we’ll have a look at:

• Stocks (S&P 500)

• Bitcoin (BTC)

• Altcoins (TOTAL2)

• SAVM

• CHNG

• ZEPH

Let’s dive into it!

S&P 500

Since stocks just hit a new all-time high, let's start today by looking at the leading index for risk assets in general, the S&P 500.

Even though the correlation is not always very high, crypto is a risk asset like stocks. Both assets experienced a rally since the beginning of last year.

This is once again a good example of how at market bottoms, there are only bearish news, and at tops, there are only good news.

People thought the world was ending, but instead, the rally essentially continued throughout the whole year 2023.

Understanding this principle is crucial, or you might hit a wall, especially in the crypto market.

Bitcoin (BTC)

The monthly chart, after a long uptrend, now displays a doji candle for January.

This candle primarily indicates indecision, and indeed, people are resonating with both “we're heading to new lows”-bears and “ATH before halving”-bulls.

My main bias is still bullish. While retests of 37k, 33k or 31.5k with a wick down below 30k are possible imo, I can’t see new lows.

I still expect the continuation of the overall bullish trend into the US elections in November.

Altcoins

The monthly altcoin chart still appears bullish, too. The main higher timeframe resistance has been breached and retested.

However, there is only a narrow gap between the current value and the resistance, and a 6% move would be sufficient for another retest.

For medium-term upside potential, we do not want to see a higher timeframe close (daily/weekly) below this resistance.

However, it must be said that this would be an ideal buying opportunity. Many fundamentally strong projects are already down 30-70% from their last swing high, but another discount is always welcome, considering that all good projects have already experienced a pump of at least 10x in the past few months.

The best approach is to observe this situation without emotions and act accordingly. If altcoins lose value once again, it's not the time to lose conviction but to buy more.

SAVM

This is what a chart looks like when influencers hype it up and then dump it on their followers.

All influencers still claiming it made a 200x are involved. Unfollow immediately.

For our portfolio, we also chose a Layer 2 for Bitcoin but went with SPACE. Microvision Chain is fair launched - meaning nobody is dumping on you!

Of course, every altcoin project has its risks, as we saw this week with CHNG.

CHNG

The team of Chainge made several changes that did not sit well with the community, with many unable to access their tokens.

The price plummeted, retracing almost the entire last swing. Now, the price has found support around 8 cents, leading to a generous recovery.

However, it's crucial that no further negative news surfaces at this point. The 8 cent mark must be maintained; otherwise, there is a risk of a more significant decline.

It's important to always be mindful that unfavorable communication or even soft rugs can occur with all small altcoin projects.

That's why we don't put all our eggs in one basket!

ZEPH

The privacy coin Zephyr experienced an incredible pump but has now retraced most of its gains, even losing the last significant Fibonacci level.

If this level cannot be quickly reclaimed, or if the overall market takes a bearish turn, I anticipate another retracement to around $7.

That would be a buying zone for me.

Until now, I've kept my distance from privacy coins because, in addition to the general crypto risk, there are regulatory aspects to consider.

The “CBDC killer” Zephyr might sound appealing to crypto and freedom enthusiasts, but not so much for regulators.

Nevertheless, $7 would present a good risk/reward ratio for me.

Thank you for reading and have a great day!

Marco

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