Hello everyone!

Welcome to the seventeenth edition of my newsletter! Every Saturday I’ll be sending out a quick newsletter on how to master crypto. I write about mindset, trends and analysis.

Today, I focus on my detailed plans for each scenario for the next months.

And thank you very much for subscribing - I've crossed 100 subscribers since the last issue! We’re a growing family!

The Scenarios

As I've already posted on Twitter, I currently consider 5 scenarios. The outcome hinges a lot on the approval, delay, or rejection of the spot ETFs.

Of course, a black swan is also possible at any time, should there be a corresponding event, like the collapse of Binance or Tether, or something similar.

If that doesn't happen and the ETF isn't denied at an unfavorable time, I consider it most likely that the bottom is in and we'll spend some time in an accumulation range.

But one thing at a time.

Scenario 1+2

I consider scenarios 1 and 2 to be the most likely. Nobody knows how deep we ultimately go. Up target: Range high.

Scenario 3

After the spectacular bull run of 2021 and the subsequent selloff of 2022, we have been in a range for quite some time. This range might continue for an extended period.

Actionlist for Scenarios 1-3

All three scenarios have one thing in common: they assume that the next bull run will start sometime in the year 2024. Until then, Bitcoin will likely remain within an accumulation range under 32k.

Besides from that, it's highly likely that in all scenarios, the Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise.

This means that the best opportunities for purchasing altcoins are yet to come, at least for the currently existing mid- and high-cap coins.

As an example, let's take a look at two very different projects: Solana and Verasity.

What is immediately noticeable, even though they are two very different projects with varying market caps, is that the chart is extremely similar.

The vast majority of altcoins that existed in the last cycle are now in an accumulation range after a dramatic selloff. As a result, the strategy is essentially the same for the most altcoins.

So, what to do then?

Identify a couple of solid projects like SOL, VRA, etc., or just have a look at my watchlist from the last issue. Mark the range of the last few months.

When the range low is reached: buy and hold until the next cycle. We might even see a deviation of the range lows, which would, of course, be the best buying opportunity.

Always remember: You’re getting rich by buying low and selling high. And the lower you buy, the better.

In parallel, I will keep an eye out for the latest developments and trends. The biggest winners of the next cycle are either emerging right now or will emerge soon.

For that, I will reserve a certain percentage of my portfolio. Never go out of dry powder to buy the next shiny thing. However, these are naturally much riskier plays than SOL etc.

How much of your portfolio you ultimately allocate to these safe altcoin plays and how much to riskier ones depends on your risk appetite.

And what if the range low is not reached again? Well, in these scenarios, it's highly likely that it will be reached again. And if not, that leads us to scenario 4.

Scenario 4

We wouldn't be in crypto if things couldn't turn out completely differently as well.

And to be clear about this: most people are anticipating exactly that scenario and have the exact action list in mind that I've described so far. This is somewhat dangerous, as the market typically behaves contrary to the majority.

Aside from that, in October, there are two final deadlines for spot ETFs. An approval would almost certainly shatter the resistance at 31k with an impressive god candle.

Actionlist for Scenario 4

If Bitcoin does indeed break through the resistance in the coming weeks, I would probably wait initially to see if it's a deviation and if I can stick to my plan.

Unless the first spot ETF is approved in 2023.

In that case, I would actually go balls deep into Bitcoin immediately. I might add a little bit of ETH and other alts, but I would focus on Bitcoin first.

And then I would ride this wave and have a look for new opportunities along the way. Because the money will flow into Bitcoin first, and when eventually retail attention turns back to crypto, altcoins will go parabolic and new projects will also emerge (have a look at TSP #14 regarding the altseason cycle).

Whether those are old or mainly new projects will be seen in due course, as the development is incredibly rapid. But that's why we're on this journey together!

ToDo

Mark the decision dates in your calendar! At the very least, the final decision days should be marked as days where you’re

• actively following the news

• monitoring Twitter and

• having capital ready for immediate action.

I cannot emphasize this enough. If a spot ETF were to be approved earlier than expected by the general public, everything will move incredibly fast. 

Have a plan and be fast.

Or buy much higher.

Scenario 5

I also consider this scenario not entirely unlikely, and it would indeed be the scenario I would prefer, as it would present the greatest buying opportunity.

Whether the bottom from November/December 2022 is reached, or it becomes a higher low, or even a lower low, doesn't really matter much. If Bitcoin were to be traded below 18k again, that would be a gift.

Many altcoins would bleed even more heavily than before and become even better buying opportunities. In any case, I would wait for bottom signals in the event of a leg down to not catch a falling knive (I leaned this the hard way).

In the upcoming issue of this newsletter, I'll delve into the question of how to identify tops and bottoms for max profits!

Actionlist for Scenario 5

Maintain a watchlist that you continuously refine. You can also use the one from the last issue.

When a bottom signal is present, buy with everything you have and hold.

Investing can be very simple.

Twitter Reads

If you want to learn more about fundamental anaylsis:

With my best regards and wishes, I hope you have a wonderful weekend.

Marco Johanning

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